BCREA 2012 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – October 26, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 9.8 per cent to 69,200 units this year, before increasing 8.3 per cent to 74,920 units in 2013. The fifteen-year average is 79,000 unit sales, while a record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"Despite stronger consumer demand in the interior, BC home sales will fall short of last year’s total,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “A moderating trend in Vancouver has recently been exacerbated by tighter high-ratio mortgage regulation. The resulting decline in purchasing power has squeezed some potential buyers out of the market. However, strong full-time employment growth, persistently low mortgage interest rates and an expanding population base point to more robust consumer demand in 2013."  

"While the average MLS® residential price is forecast to decline 7.6 per cent to $518,600 this year, the change is largely the result of luxury home sales returning to more normal levels after an unusually active 2011,” added Muir. In addition, the Lower Mainland’s share of provincial home sales is expected to decline to 57 per cent this year from 62 per cent in 2011.The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to edge up 0.7 per cent to $522,000 in 2013.

Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 28.5 per cent to $2.2 billion in September compared to the same month last year. A total of 4,539 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 24.3 per cent from September 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $494,213, down 5.6 per cent from a year ago.

"Stricter high-ratio mortgage regulation further exacerbated a moderating trend in consumer demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Reducing the maximum amortization from 30 to 25 years had the equivalent impact to affordability as a 100 basis point increase in mortgage interest rates."

“An expanding population, strong full-time employment growth and persistent low mortgage interest rates are expected to bolster housing demand in the months ahead,” added Muir.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 18.5 per cent to $28.4 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales declined 10.6 per cent to 54,670 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 8.9 per cent lower at $519,289.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Total MLS® residential sales for September 2012 were 400 compared to 435 in September 2011. During the month, 216 single family homes sold throughout the Victoria Real Estate Board's region, just 28 fewer than the 244 sold in September 2011. The average price for single family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $589,361, down from September 2011's average of $622,393. The median price is down by $16,500 to $517,500 over September 2011. There are 5,025 active listings.

"We are at a bit of a standoff in the Greater Victoria real estate market," says Carol Crabb, President of the Victoria Real Estate Board. "Buyers are waiting for prices to go down, but there are no economic indicators to show that will happen. Sellers are pricing their properties reasonably for the current market, which is reflected by the fact that single family homes are selling for an average 96% of list price.

"The median price of a single family home is only 1.5% lower than last year and that number has held steady for the last five months," Crabb says.

Condominium and manufactured home sales are virtually unchanged over September 2011 (approximately 1% each), while townhomes sales have declined 10%.

Total Waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 18, up 7 sales from 2011
Total Non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 198, down 35 sales from September 2011
Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million: 14 (0 over $2 million)

  Total Single Family All Areas includes Shawnigan Lake/Malahat, Gulf Islands and Up Island

Summary Report and Graphs

Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs